TTM SABR - Statistical Analysis of Baseball Requests

Don't get too worked up. There will not be any formal statistical analysis. True SABR junkies please point your browser elsewhere. If you insist on staying, find a formula for VORP for my TMMs. Actually, I do ponder if I'll get any extra hits via google with SABR in the title. Google Analytics, please keep me updated!

Well, like most people it seems on the forums of Freedomcardboard.com, my Spring Training TTM requests did not have a high success rate. Even more, my stated goal at the beginning of ST was WAY OFF the mark, only reaching the halfway mark of my stated goal. Since I didn't go into detail about who I was sending to this Spring beforehand, I'll take the time now to dive in and give out some statistics from my Spring Training TTM Hits and Misses. Your lucky day, right?

Wave #1 (Sent the day before pitchers and catchers report)
Bobby Cox (Miss)
Joe Torre (Miss)
Greg Maddux (Miss)
Brian McCann (Miss)
Billy Wagner (Miss)

So I'm completely struck out with Wave #1. However, I did not have high expectations for this group, as I would have considered 1 reply a success for this group. Unfortunately, I didn't even get one (so far). Your most likely reading at home thinking "Did he actually think he'd get all those back?" Quite honestly, no, which is why my stated goal was 1/5. You gotta take a chance with TTM's every now and then and I really believe that Spring Training is the best time to take that chance.

Wave #2 (Sent the day before first full squad workouts)
Elvis Andrus (Hit)

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Miss)
Adam LaRoche (Miss)
Jeff Francoeur (Hit)

Andruw Jones (Miss)

This group proved to be a bit better, as I was able to hit 2/5 players. I had the reasonable goal of 3/5 returns for this group, so this group carried most of its weight. Congratulations, you were not epic fail!

Wave #3 (Sent the first week of full squad workouts)
Todd Redmond (Hit)

Jo Jo Reyes (Miss)
Nate McLouth (Miss)
Tommy Hanson (Miss)
Mike Gonzalez (Hit)


Now here we see players that have a nice history of signing, so I upped the stated goal to 4/5. To high? Well, for Spring Training returns, I'll have to say yes. I do think that I have a good shot at getting 1 or 2 more back, just throughout the season.

Wave #4 (Sent at the end of the week during first full squad workouts)
Jeff Lyman (Hit)

Jose Orentagno (Miss)
James Parr (Hit)

Eric O'Flaherty (Miss)
Kenshin Kawakami (Miss)

Another group I had high hopes for, giving it a 4/5 goal. Again, I hit 2/5 for this group, but I'm sure I might get a another return sooner or later. So if your keeping score at home, we now my stated goal:

12/20.

Compare this to my actual success rate for the spring: 6/20. Ouch. Not a good spring, but hopefully it will be redeemed throughout the year. In fact, last year I only received one return out of 10 during ST, but that number increased to 6 this spring with a nice return from Terry Pendleton.

Any readers out there be sure to let me know how your TTM's went this Spring Training, and if you have a blog or website, be sure to link it. I like being nosey.